A brief analysis of the global environment for the

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A brief analysis of the global environment for the development of photovoltaic and other new energy enterprises

according to media reports, the four giants of the photovoltaic industry, including Suntech, Yingli, Trina Solar and atlas, have recently come to Beijing to make trouble for their backward equipment. It is hoped that the central government can take measures to support photovoltaic enterprises and resist the challenge of anti-dumping lawsuits from Europe and the United States. In addition, according to recent relevant reports, due to the impact of the market environment, the debt ratios of several major photovoltaic enterprises have soared (Ye Tan, August 2, 2012), and the business risks are increasing. After several years of accumulation of production scale of photovoltaic industry, compared with the slow growth of demand capacity, overcapacity has become extremely obvious. In fact, as early as the last wave of financial crisis, Premier Wen Jiabao pointed out that "new energy enterprises should pay attention to overcapacity" when inspecting several new energy enterprises in Northeast China in july2009. Later, Premier Wen raised this issue on several occasions. In August, 2009, the author also sent an article in the people to remind new energy enterprises, ("the development of new energy industry should be based on our ability", people's overseas edition, August 13, 2009)

but unfortunately, under the great challenge of stimulating the macro-economy and local economic development, the development of photovoltaic industry still cannot get rid of the investment driven development mode. After several rounds of reinvestment, the current production capacity has undoubtedly overdrawn the future production capacity and greatly exceeded the scale required for consumption. Of course, since the development of the photovoltaic industry, overcapacity and challenges have become a fact. The next question is how to look at the future development trend, especially in the increasingly tight international political and economic environment, where will the development of the photovoltaic industry go? Recently, the key point of this issue is how to correctly view the international environmental changes related to the photovoltaic industry

in November last year, Solarworld, a U.S. photovoltaic enterprise, led six other photovoltaic manufacturers to file an application for a "double anti" investigation against Chinese photovoltaic enterprises with the U.S. Department of Commerce. Subsequently, the U.S. government launched a "double anti" investigation and made a preliminary determination in May this year. The "double anti" was established, and anti-dumping duties ranging from 31% were levied on Chinese photovoltaic enterprises. Then in July, U.S. wind energy enterprises also filed an anti-dumping investigation application against Chinese wind energy products. In the same period, the above-mentioned Solarworld German companies filed an anti-dumping investigation application with the European Union. If the relevant "double anti" investigations and rulings of the United States have not really touched the core interests of Chinese photovoltaic and other new energy enterprises, then if the European Union accepts the anti-dumping investigation application of U.S. enterprises and German companies and makes an adverse ruling, Chinese photovoltaic enterprises will undoubtedly suffer a heavy blow. It can be said that this is the most severe period faced by China's photovoltaic and other new energy enterprises since their large-scale expansion, and its challenges are greater than the impact of this round of financial crisis on enterprises. So, are these recent changes in the international environment a long-term development trend, a rebound in short-term political and economic policies, or a manifestation of the deepening of the financial crisis affecting the new energy industry? What are the deep-seated reasons? The analysis of these issues helps us to correctly judge and estimate the international environmental changes of photovoltaic and other new energy enterprises, so as not to overestimate or underestimate their impact

to answer the above questions, we should first clarify the significance of China's production and export of photovoltaic products and other new energy industries to Europe and the United States

generally speaking, in response to the wave of climate change, both the overall mandatory emission reduction in the EU and the partial voluntary emission reduction in the United States are inseparable from the expanded use of cash inflows from renewable energy that largely benefit from operating activities, which is reflected in the determination of energy development strategies in Europe and the United States, but limited by the specific resource endowment conditions and social, political and economic environment of the two places, They differ in the planning, steps and Strategies of new energy development. Generally speaking, the EU is active while the United States is passive, and the EU is active while the United States is passive. In this way, the impact on new energy markets such as photovoltaic products is that the United States is less dependent, while the EU is more dependent. In terms of medium-term development, the utilization scale of new energy products in the United States shows a downward trend, but the EU is likely to continue to expand. This is the overall international situation for the development of China's photovoltaic and other new energy products. Under this situation, the production and export of China's photovoltaic products can not count on the U.S. market, but the EU market can still be expected

however, the problem with the EU market is that, according to their judgment, if countries around the world successively establish carbon emission reduction mechanisms and eventually form a unified carbon emission trading market, with the cancellation of traditional petrochemical energy subsidies, the cost of non renewable energy utilization will increase step by step, and gradually move closer to the cost of new energy utilization with the progress of new energy technology. In this way, This means that conditions have been created for the successive cancellation of the original subsidies for the use of new energy market for photovoltaic products. In fact, to a certain extent, the common fatigue testing machine and vernier caliper, which are the biggest testing equipment, are not Chinese enterprises, but the new energy enterprises in the European Union

therefore, in the development of the two major new energy markets in Europe and the United States, the situation is different. Each has its own problems. In comparison, the problems in the United States are larger and those in the European Union are smaller. In fact, in terms of the current international distribution of production capacity, it is difficult for EU enterprises to compete with Chinese manufacturers in production and supply, and the EU market cannot get rid of its high dependence on Chinese photovoltaic enterprises. This is the significance of China's photovoltaic production to Europe and the United States. If Europe and the United States carry out anti-dumping and sanctions on Chinese photovoltaic products, it will have a negative impact, but only in the short term. In the long run, the market will return to fundamentals

at present, since Solarworld Germany has set off a storm of anti-dumping and photovoltaic trade war in the EU, it is not ruled out that it has the tacit consent of a number of local photovoltaic production enterprises in the EU. The EU naturally knows that this photovoltaic enterprise headquartered in the United States has not so simple intentions, but it is difficult not to arouse a backlash within the EU under the current situation that Chinese photovoltaic enterprises are thriving, Even if not from the perspective of protecting local photovoltaic enterprises, the EU will appropriately restrict the large-scale entry of Chinese photovoltaic products based on the consideration of balancing market supply and demand. The EU is worried that once China becomes the only supplier of photovoltaic products in the EU, the EU will be completely subject to Chinese factors in terms of low-carbon development, coping with climate change and developing renewable energy, This is difficult to accept in any country or region. In this regard, Solarworld's application for anti-dumping investigation is consistent with the intention of the EU

however, on the contrary, we should also see that the EU and the United States are not monolithic in the development of renewable energy and carbon emission reduction. The EU has gone too fast and too fast in low-carbon development. It is trying to restrict other countries in the world, including the United States, with its internal carbon emission trading system. This is the biggest contradiction between the United States and Europe in dealing with climate change and carbon emission reduction. As expected, the United States hopes to prevent the EU from smoothly implementing its carbon emission trading system in the world in various ways. This is because they hope to provoke photovoltaic trade disputes between China and Europe, It is the same intention to weaken China's export capacity of photovoltaic products and reduce the EU's renewable energy utilization process. Therefore, in the current pattern of global development of low-carbon economy, for China's photovoltaic industry, China and the United States have more common interests in the level of mandatory carbon emission reduction, but in the development of renewable energy, China and the EU have more common interests. On the issue of balancing the global trade of photovoltaic products, the United States and Europe have common interests. These aspects are interconnected and contain each other at the same time

in short, our photovoltaic and other new energy enterprises must pay attention to and understand the key to coping with climate change and the change of the international pattern of low-carbon development, so as not to play the wrong chess and go the wrong way in this round of international game

(lizhiqing, deputy director of environmental economy research center of Fudan University) Zhonghua glass () Department

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